Resisting Tyrants And Avoiding The Hangman

KEEP GOING

If you have lots of problems in your real life, keep reading. We live in the age of the Internet. People measure success these days by where they live, what car they drive(or don’t), how much money they have, how many likes, friends, or followers they have on social media, what kind of job they have(or don’t). People care about how much they weigh, what they look like, or how many subscribers they have on their YouTube channel.

People talk often about being positive, and being happy. It’s funny how life and reality don’t work that way. Life is always a struggle, full of disappointments, and the wages you earn are never enough. Keep going.

Making something from nothing is hard. Nobody says it is going to be easy. Unless you were one of the lucky ones born into a perfect family, it’s what you have to do. Unless you are content with being one of the masses, it is up to you to be exceptional. Artists are born with a innate need to create, to be creative.There are no easy shortcuts through the woods. Watch out for the wolves, watch out for the hangman. They or he might be around the next bend, or behind the next tree.

The tree remembers what the axe forgets. We live in a culture of secret societies, surprisingly they are so well known. Long, long ago women ruled the world, until men revolted against them. The world has always been divided into men, and the women and children. Until a young boy reaches puberty, he is considered just one of young ones. Now men rule the world, kings and presidents decide everything.

Omerta is a code of silence and secrecy that forbids members from betraying their ‘brothers’ to authorities or other gangs. There are no tyrants among the hunters and gatherers. He who is deaf, blind, and silent will live a hundred years. The city known as ‘Freedom’ will never fall.

Unless you want to work in the warehouse, or drive the truck, the only alternative these days is to be an ‘entrepreneur’. Your grandfather didn’t have or need this choice. Men worked, and women took care of the house and raised the family. The Uber drivers and gig workers were lured by this idea; work whenever and however long you want. They chased the easy money, with no thought of what their decision would mean to their career(or their car) or reputation. How fast reality catches up in real life. There is no such thing as a free ride, everything comes at a cost.

Everybody wants to be the taxi driver. Why? It has always meant long hours, danger, and the rejection by the society they served. Now gig workers are ‘on strike’ and Uber and Lyft drivers find themselves making an average of $9.21 an hour. They find themselves having to work 12-18 hours a day just to make ends meet. Everybody loves Uber until they get Ubered. Nobody who get special privileges gets them forever. Now the regulators who were strong-armed are turning on Uber and Lyft, and they will pay the price. It is the nature of the beast.

America is the land of the exceptional. Nobody dare say superior, lest they bring up memories from the history of the world. Our founding fathers were rebels, they revolted in 1776 against the king. They refused to be ruled. The gig workers thought they were disrupting the taxi industry, yet every airport still has taxicabs. Why?

Because the network of taxi drivers is strong. Though the storm Uber has brought, fueled by foolish venture capital, has been fierce the taxi driver’s anchors have held. How fast the reality of life works things out. Taxi drivers have always been made up of the mavericks, the troublemakers, curiously many with college degrees with many that walked away from well-paying corporate jobs.

Every book that is written is not published. Every promotion comes with a hidden cost. Those what went along to get along are finding that the American dream of a good job and a good marriage would mean a life of leisure. They expected two cars in the garage and two weeks of vacation every year. They find themselves in debt, living in a world where everything costs more and more, but the wages are not increased to match.

This country America, is in debt, trillions and trillions in debt. Each dollar, tied to debt, is worth less and less as the years roll on. What is one to do? Buy Bitcoin. It’s a scam, a ponzi scheme, people said when Bitcoin was worth 80 cents that it would never equal a dollar. Many who believed way back when have become millionaires.

Bitcoin will serve you better than dollars. Want to learn more? Go to www.CryptoCopia.GA and buy some. It’s never too late. Want to generate Bitcoin while you surf the web or watch YouTube, go to www.Crypto-Browser.GQ

The taxi industry is not going away, neither is the ‘rideshare’ trade. There is a new rideshare company poised to take a slice of the growing transportation business. It is called TRYP Rides and those who believe in it’s potential are met with ridicule and doubt. It’s called a scam, and a ponzi scheme, or people think it aims to follow the path of Uber and Lyft. But it’s different, drivers have a chance to gain stock options. It’s passengers will be chosen by invite. Passengers will be able to request their favorite driver. Drivers will be able to build up their own customers of regular riders. The world will be a different place when there are three competitors in the game.

Want to learn more about TRYP? Go to https://youmatter.tryprides.com/dev-sales/sales-page/?ref=scott7900

Want regular riders? Imagine a world where an intelligent city is just the everyday life. Where comfortable transportation is not a luxury, but the most normal thing. The purpose of U4RYDE.GQ is to lead us to “a more prosperous future.”

  TrypRideshare.ML Sign up for #TRYP free and earn 40 cents for everyone you refer, every time they take a ride. It’s #Rideshare done better, the right way.

Tryp drivers keep 100% of their fares, tips, and cancellation fees. Learn more at www.RideshareMatrix.GQ FB Group. Transportation is a $2Trillion market in the U.S. alone.

It is not for everyone. Whatever you do, follow your dream. Dream big. The faceless tyrants and puppet masters are out there. Not all of us will escape. If you are reading this, you likely still have a chance. I will be hiding at ScottWalsh.GA

Come join my mailing list, let’s keep in touch. There are no limits to what a committed group of people can accomplish. Life is about being happy and taking everything as it comes. Smile, and always think positive. It is always the positive people that have a solution, no matter what problem comes along.

Very little grows on jagged rock. Be ground. Be crumbled. They might bury me, I might not win in the long run, but I will be happy if wildflowers grow on my grave.

Cheaters NEVER win – Taxi vs Uber

Cheaters NEVER win – Taxi vs Uber

It takes time to dismantle a company as large as Uber. I was one of the first to hit the buzzer and call “bullshit”. You can catch up with these gems: Uber. BS earnings. Tech journalists didn’t do forensics. So I did and Will Uber be the death of Softbank And the start of it all Uber. Beginning the postmortem 

The whole bunch is here: adamtownsend.me/category/uber/

What if a Venture funded and wildly unprofitable company employs all the propaganda of a Nation, uses fake news, embedded journalists, positive feedback loops and all the tricks of the behavioral sciences?

On that note…

On July 19th 2018, Morningstar released a research report predicting that Uber would become profitable in 2020 and could achieve an IPO value of $110 billion.

Morningstar’s report is dis-information and is buried in uber complexity.

Because the report is large and stuffed with misleading’ness, rather than an on-point rebut, I’ll break down the gist of the thing.

Uber financials and the mystery bumps

The table below combines the actual historical data with Morningstar’s forecast, and shows year-over year changes in Revenue, EBIDTAR expenses and EBIDTAR contribution margin.

The contribution margin of growth 2014-17 improved very gradually, and Morningstar’s post-2020 forecast shows similarly gradual EBIDTAR margin gains. But…

…Lo and behold, there is a 45 point margin improvement in 2018 versus 2017 growth and a 40 point margin improvement in 2020 versus 2019, which drive P&L gains of $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion respectively. Morningstar offers no justification. It just happens.

Morningstar’s assumes demand will grow completely independently of the ability of drivers to make money or the prices customers pay.

The double-digit demand growth forecasts are driven by Morningstar’s valuation based entirely on crude calculations that claim to measure the size of the aggregate market demand for ridesharing, food delivery and other products.

Morningstar claims

  • Overall rideshare market will grow at a 29% five year CAGR
  • Uber will grow at a faster 39% rate.

“Hmmm. 39% growth for years for an already large company entering its second decade in a well-established industry. Nah” – me

Morningstar data on the total market demand for urban car services extrapolates the single revenue datapoint of New York City taxi revenue in 2014, this in turn is used to inflate growth multipliers by combining demand for transport in hundreds of huge, rapidly growing non-US cities. It’s a distortion that ignores the fact that with few exceptions, Uber’s efforts to penetrate these faster growing markets have been financially disastrous.

Propaganda free analysis would disclose that Uber’s rate of revenue growth has slowed over its nine years of operation and was only 20% in 2017, in part due to efforts to reduce its financial losses. Nothing in Morningstar’s report explains why, despite large continuing losses, Uber will suddenly increase revenue growth to 60% in 2018. Further and the report ignores the fact that its historical revenue growth was largely driven by multi-billion dollar subsidies.

Morningstar’s forecast of Uber growth in non-car service markets offers no evidence that Uber Eats generates positive cash flow or actual GAAP profits or moving toward GAAP breakeven. Pesky details.

Morningstar mentions “network effects” > +40 times

…invoking a financial talisman to eliminate the need for economic evidence.

“Uber’s network effects benefit drivers and riders; the benefits for each create a continuous virtuous cycle” – Morningstar

Morningstar cites Facebook’s network effects as a comparable example of network benefits for consumers.

But Uber has none of Facebook’s network economies, where each additional user makes the company and its platform more valuable to all other (existing and potential) users.

Uber users may like its prices and service, but they do not care how many other people download the app.

Network effects” supposedly explain Uber’s capacity utilization advantage, as they eliminate the…

“…need for bright yellow cars to roam about, waiting for a hand in the air to match with it.” – Morningstar

Where in the report is any evidence that Uber has a capacity utilization advantage over traditional taxis that could have any material bearing on its growth and profitability forecasts?

Morningstar misrepresents the economics of drivers

To stem losses, Uber has been unilaterally increasing its “commission” from 20% to 30% while also eliminating many driver incentives. These changes resulted in the driver share falling from 83% in 2014 to 68% in 2016. And that…

…increased Uber’s EBIDTAR contribution by over $2.6 billion, and improved EBIDTAR margins from (118%) to (50%). But Uber would have still had triple digit negative margins if the driver share had remained above 80%. The only major progress Uber has made towards a breakeven P&L required pushing driver compensation to (or below) minimum wage levels.

Morningstar’s forecast ignored the importance of the Uber/driver revenue split to Uber’s bottom line, and asserted that 21-22% Uber shares (similar to 2017 actuals) will remain stable for the next ten years.

Even though it would be arithmetically impossible for both Uber and drivers to increase their share at the same time, Morningstar constructed its financial assumptions on this scenario.

Autonomous car and flying car programs

Morningstar details Uber’s long term potential to exploit businesses such as autonomous vehicles (AVs) and flying cars (Uber Elevate) but then totally excludes the cost of developing them from their valuation estimates.

  • Perhaps these investments will increase the value that IPO investors will get (long-term potential greatly exceeding near-term costs) or
  • Perhaps they will actually decrease Uber’s value (the low probability of far-off returns doesn’t justify the costs and risks)

…but Morningstar just disappears the critical issues.

Morningstar defense of Uber’s AV program rests on boiler room claims that autonomous vehicles would allow Uber to reduce the price of rides by 60%. Drivers do account for roughly 60% of the costs of a traditional taxi operation, but the introduction of autonomous vehicles would significantly increase other costs and would additionally demand that Uber becomes a highly-capital intensive business since it could no longer push all the costs and risks of AVs onto its drivers.

“That mystery set of omissions would fuck up the 110 billion dollar valuation scheme”

https://www.adamtownsend.me/uber-ipo-boiler-room/

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream

All that we see or seem is but a dream within a dream

#AtlantaAirport #BusinessNews

$30 MILLION! dispatch software/system – still can’t find an address, lost over $2 billion in its sixth year of operation and then doubled those losses to $4.5 billion in year eight. And STILL can’t make a profit or even get passengers without giving away minimum $20 per week in free rides. “#UBER is over.” DeleteUber.Info #Lyft refused to give cops name of driver accused of masturbating during ride with teen https://nyp.st/2OthLFe “But I have no integrity at all, I lie about my name and I don’t have to obey any regulations or rules, as long as I can cash out every day and make some quick money, I won’t stop, just because my company killed that girl in Arizona while their ‘#selfdriving’ car’s human driver was watching Hulu on her iPad. So?” #Rideshare Driver Dustin. (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEkdB6ChCWAZchsOwvkM2Pg)

Uber should have gone even further given its self-driving car killed Herzberg, said Bryant Walker Smith, an assistant law professor at the University of South Carolina who has been studying the issues affecting #autonomous vehicles. In its typical arrogance, Uber has not acceptted responsibility for Herzberg’s death – the first involving a fully autonomous vehicle, he said.